ANÁLISE DA VIABILIDADE TÉCNICA E ECONÔMICA DA PRODUÇÃO DE HIDROGÊNIO VERDE NO MARANHÃO

Abstract

The heavy global dependence on fossil fuels has exacerbated climate change, air pollution, and environmental degradation. In this scenario, green hydrogen (GH) emerges as a strategic alternative in the energy transition, as it is produced via water electrolysis using renewable sources and without greenhouse gas emissions. Maranhão stands out for its renewable potential, strategic location, and industrial demand, favoring the development of the H2V production chain. Technical and economic studies are essential to inform public policies, guide energy planning, and attract investment by estimating costs and risks and supporting the most appropriate technological choice for the local context. This work assessed the technical and economic feasibility of GH production in a 5 MW plant, with an annual capacity of 714,528 kg, located in the Export Processing Zone (ZPE) of Bacabeira, Maranhão. Three renewable energy supply scenarios were analyzed: hydropower acquisition (scenario A) and wind power acquisition (scenario B) from the free contracting environment (FCE), and photovoltaic selfgeneration (scenario C). For this evaluation, the investment (CAPEX) and operational (OPEX) data were employed, with discounted cash flow projections and economic indicators such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), discounted payback period (DPBP), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), and minimum selling price (MSP). From the 03 scenarios, only A and B indicated economic viability, which were similar, in which the first presented a NPV of R$ 54,344,603.99, an IRR of 14.01 %, a DPBP of 12.77 years, a MSP of R$ 48.49/kg (US$ 8.36/kg), and a LCOH of US$ 18.74/kg (R$ 108.69/kg), and the second scenario presented a NPV of R$ 47,396,851.51, an IRR of 13.52 %, a DPBP of 13.38 years, a MSP of R$ 49.70/kg (US$ 8.56/kg), and a LCOH of US$ 19.24/kg (R$ 111.59/kg). In contrast, scenario C proved economically unfeasible under the analyzed conditions, showing a negative NPV of -R$ 11,924,930.72, an IRR of 9.49 %, and a DPBP did not reach within 20 years, despite recording the lowest LCOH (US$ 16.03/kg – R$ 92.97/kg). With this, it is identified that Maranhão possesses competitive potential for GH production, especially based on hydropower and wind sources. The viability of the photovoltaic route, however, depends on government incentives, significant gains in scale, and technological advancements that reduce both CAPEX and OPEX.