ANÁLISE EPIDEMIOLÓGICA DA OCORRÊNCIA DE DENGUE NO MUNICÍPIO DE SÃO LUÍS E NA BAIXADA MARANHENSE NO PERÍODO ENTRE 2015 A 2024

Abstract

Dengue is an arboviral disease of high relevance to public health, especially in tropical and subtropical regions such as Brazil. Caused by four distinct serotypes of the virus (DENV 1 to 4) and mainly transmitted by the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, this disease has a broad clinical spectrum, ranging from mild symptoms to severe and potentially fatal conditions. In recent years, factors such as climate change, accelerated urbanization, lack of basic sanitation, and socio-environmental inequalities have contributed to the increasing incidence of dengue, highlighting the urgent need for integrated epidemiological surveillance, vector control, and prevention strategies. In this context, this dissertation analyzed the occurrence of dengue in the municipality of São Luís and the Baixada Maranhense region, in the state of Maranhão, from 2015 to 2024. The research applied an ecological, descriptive, and quantitative epidemiological approach, based on secondary data from SINAN/DATASUS and climatic variables retrieved from the Google Earth Engine platform. The results showed distinct peaks of incidence in each region, with a higher number of cases in São Luís, particularly in 2016, and in Baixada Maranhense in 2015. The most affected age group was 20 to 39 years in both regions, with a predominance of female cases. From a socio-educational perspective, the majority of cases occurred among individuals with completed secondary education, along with a high percentage of missing data regarding education in the baixada. Statistical analysis revealed a strong correlation between rainfall and the number of cases in São Luís (R² = 62.29%), and especially in Baixada Maranhense (R² = 75.97%), reinforcing the role of climate in dengue transmission dynamics. Although temperature appeared relevant in some analyses, its influence was secondary. The data indicate that outbreaks tend to occur in the early months of the year, coinciding with periods of increased rainfall. Based on this evidence, the study underscores the importance of articulating public health actions, environmental policies, and health education strategies to combat dengue in specific regional contexts. The findings offer important insights for surveillance and intervention efforts, particularly in areas with greater social and climatic vulnerability.