Impacto da Ausência de Torcida em Indicadores de Jogo no Futebol: Uma Abordagem Longitudinal Considerando o Aumento no Número de Substituições

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the combined impact of the absence of fans and the increase in the number of substitutions on home advantage and the game performance indicators of home teams in different temporal contexts. Methods: An observational, comparative, and longitudinal study was conducted using men's football matches from the five main European leagues: Premier League (England), La Liga (Spain), Bundesliga (Germany), Ligue 1 (France), and Serie A (Italy). The analysis covered five consecutive seasons (2017-2018 to 2022-2023), divided into three periods: pre- pandemic (2017-2018 and 2018-2019), pandemic (2020-2021), and post-pandemic (2021-2022 and 2022-2023). Data were collected via web scraping using the platform www.FBref.com, the R programming language, and the worldfootballR package. Variables were grouped into five categories: Match Context, Result Indicators, Offensive Indicators, Defensive Indicators, and Disciplinary Indicators, totaling 32 variables. Statistical analysis included the Lilliefors Normality Test for Kolmogorov- Smirnov, the Kruskal-Wallis Test, and Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with Poisson Regression and Negative Binomial Regression. Results: The absence of fans significantly impacted game indicators, reducing home team goals, shots on target, interceptions, and attempts to clear the ball from the defensive field. The return of fans partially restored home advantage, increasing home team goals and shots on target. The increase to five substitutions showed mixed effects, benefiting physical renewal through the inclusion of new players and allowing tactical adjustments, but impairing the fluidity of the game in actions requiring coordination, such as progressive passes and interceptions. Conclusion: The results indicate that the presence or absence of fans, as well as the increase in the number of substitutions, influence the performance of home teams, directly affecting home advantage and game indicators. Game strategies adapted to these factors can optimize performance in variable scenarios.